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Updated on June 13, 2024
The following information is built on market data from public sources and C.H. Robinson’s information advantage—based on our experience, data, and scale. Use these insights to stay informed, assist with decision making to potentially mitigate risk, and hopefully help avoid disruptions to your supply chain.
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Market forces such as changes in detention/demurrage, along with alarming signs of delays at intermediary and destination ports (such as Charleston, SC, and Los Angeles/Long Beach), highlight the importance of having alternative options for shipping volumes and modes. With the potential 'Canadian Rail Strike' to further disrupt shipping by forcing shippers to reroute cargo to the Pacific Northwest instead of Prince Rupert, additional delays and oversaturation of inland rail points are expected.
Whether suppliers choose to invest in alternative sourcing options closer to Mexico or strategize smaller shipments via LCL/air to meet short-term supply gaps, there is a growing interest in exploring these discussions and establishing thresholds for rerouting decisions.
Everyone agrees on the need to deliver cargo on time with minimal accessorial charges but strikes and equipment backups are poised to disrupt transit budgets again in 2024. Its critical to develop contingency plans for shipping routes and evaluate your product lists to ensure imports are handled cost-effectively and within compliance.
See what it takes to measure and optimize your transportation emissions.
Expect overall air freight demand in June to be moderately stronger than May, while capacity remains relatively the same. With seaport congestion that developed in May extending into June combined with container shortages and continued restrictions in the Red Sea, plan for more freight to be converted from ocean to air.
General cargo demand is also expected to be moderately stronger than May, while ecommerce demand remains stable. With so much capacity already devoted to ecommerce traffic, a rise in general cargo demand will lead to capacity shortages.
Export demand from southeast Asia is also likely to intensify, perhaps due to the imminent new trade tariffs imposed by the United States on key products made by Chinese manufacturers. With these conditions, expect air freight rates to moderately increase in June. How much they increase will depend on the momentum of ocean-to-air freight conversion and the impact of import tariffs.
The addition of summer passenger aircraft has balanced out supply and demand for lower deck cargo while main deck capacity remains tight, driving higher spot market rates. The market on U.S. exports remains open and stable.
The U.S.–LATAM market continues to be stable, with no major changes to capacity in the market. The C.H. Robinson Miami gateway is well positioned to support new opportunities in key lanes in Latin America. Regarding flights to North America, lanes have stabilized again and bookings are available within two to five days, while LATAM takes up to seven days to get availability.
Air export transit times for cargo departing from São Paulo–Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) in Brazil has increased due to congestion at the terminal. This congestion stems largely from urgent cargo being converted from ocean freight to air freight. Consider adjusting your supply chain to depart from another airport like Viracopos/Campinas International Airport (VCP) when available. Expect these delays to cause increased rates across Brazil.
Mexico inbound from Asia continues to show higher than expected rates and reduced capacity due to the ecommerce boom.
High demand in May and early June has normalized. Flights are immediately available for Europe and Asia.
The U.S. export market remains stable with ample capacity to meet demand, especially for cargo that fits on passenger flights. The increased travel demand during the summer months in the northern hemisphere should help maintain this condition through the third quarter.
Added passenger capacity has impacted how some position freighter aircraft. For example, the significant addition of passenger capacity on the Trans-Atlantic market has spread out demand, leading to worse utilization of cargo flights.
With high demand and yields for Asia export cargo, some airlines are repositioning those freighters into that market, lessening the main deck capacity elsewhere. For this reason, there are significant differences in air rates and transit when freighters are required.
Cherry season in the Pacific Northwest may impact the air export market to Asia—and has in years past. Watch for increased demand for this high-yield cargo starting in late June, however this year’s demand may have a limited impact on the overall market compared to more challenging years.
Oceania to North America passenger aircraft capacity is down slightly. Some direct flights have been removed and redeployed for the Trans-Atlantic summer holiday season. Freighter capacity has also been removed due to the softer demand from North America to Australia. Both shifts are keeping rates stable this quarter.
Oceania to Europe has also seen some interruption due to extended flight paths. These are extended to avoid air space above areas of geo-political concern. Longer flight paths add flight time, and the additional fuel required reduces weight allowance for cargo. The good news is there have been some additional flights returning to the EU/AU market, which has kept rates stable.
Oceania to Asia has abundant capacity with availability open on many lanes. Rate levels reflect this with pre-pandemic rates, in most cases.
Trans-Tasman markets are also quite stable. Capacity is sufficient for current market demands. Rate levels are quite stable currently.
Overall, import markets have been subdued, which is not atypical of end of financial year periods. However, expect them to increase in Q3 as ocean markets increase rates and equipment shortages develop.
The India market remains steady on U.S. exports, but the U.S. imports market remains congested. Backlogs have lessened in recent weeks and spot rates are trending down, but rates remain elevated compared to January 2024. The U.S. to India export market is relatively well balanced between capacity and demand.
Container freight rate hikes continue. Carriers are pushing for further rates hikes with June 1 and June 15 general rate increases (GRIs) across the Asia outbound trade lanes, (i.e., Trans-Pacific, Asia–Europe, Asia–LATAM, and Asia–Oceania). In addition, Asia–ISC and Asia–Middle East/Africa trade lanes have been impacted, following the same trend since the second half of May.
For Asia–Europe, spot rates continued to surge and the gap between Mediterranean and North Europe rates is narrowing. North Europe rates are rising faster than Mediterranean rates. On the Trans-Pacific lane, the peak season surcharge that carriers are implementing would also apply to contract rates that did not include a no-PSS clause.
Rising port congestion has added pressure to the already over-stretched container market that is reeling from a shortage of container equipment and vessel space. Singapore has become the new congestion hotspot, with berthing delays of up to seven days. The total capacity waiting to berth has been as high as 450,000 TEUs. This has forced some carriers to omit their planned Singapore port calls, which will exacerbate the problem as downstream ports will have to handle additional volumes.
The Olympic games are coming to Paris this summer and will run from July 26 through to September 8. The influx of tourist activity and the establishment of security measures are expected to cause disruption, congestion, and delays to shipments into and out of France during this period.
On May 19, the port unions labor strike in Chile ended and the port of Coronel returned to normal operations. Since then, there has been an increase in cargo from the south. However, this increase goes hand in hand with congestion produced by the strike in south Chile. Another contributing factor is regular steamships are not the largest ones available for these services. Consequently, there is a shortage of space in the Asia, U.S., and Europe lanes.
Santos
While operating normally, the port is experiencing some disruptions due to the high cargo volumes caused by the congestion in the southern region (i.e., Navegantes, Itapoa, Imbituba, Paranagua, and Rio Grande). Nevertheless, Santos has better regularity on the slings and greater operational capacity to lessen the volume. Consider moving critical shipments from/to the southern region through Santos.
Rio Grande
The port is currently open, but carriers are often omitting it to recover their sailing schedules and because moving containers out of port is still impossible due to flooding, with more rain still expected. Despite these disruptions, operation capacity can change quickly.
Navegantes/Itapoa is currently operating with just two berths. One handles international vessel flags and the other domestic. This is causing significant shipping window delays, and consequently overloading the terminal. There are many changes on deadlines with no margin for cut-off extensions. This is also making it more difficult to pick up empty units and deliver loaded ones within established windows.
Paranagua
This alternative port supports the demands of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul but is struggling with shipping window congestion. The main difficulties are equipment availability and gate-in/out windows.
Montréal
Contract negotiations continue into mid-June with the last scheduled mediation session scheduled on June 14. There has been no strike vote and the unions have not planned a meeting to call a strike. At present, all port operations are fully functional.
British Columbia
Negotiations continue to reach a deal between the BC Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA) and the International Longshoremen and Warehouse Union Ship & Dock Foremen Local 514. No 72-hour notice has been filed at the time of publication, nor have there been any labor disruptions. The port remains fully operational.
Canadian National (CN)/Canadian Pacific (CP) railways
CN & CP continue negotiations with the union. While the threat of a strike is not removed, the union will not be able to strike until the Canada Industrial Relations Bureau (CIRB) renders their decision. The deadline to file submissions to CIRB has been extended to June 14.
Check out Client Advisories for any breaking news on port negotiations. Reach out to your C.H. Robinson representative with any questions.
United States–Asia
Carriers are starting to see more demand for services via the U.S. West Coast (USWC) due to the continued challenges with obtaining appointments through the Panama Canal, and extended transit times through the Cape of Good Hope. Volumes at USWC ports have increased approximately 20% compared to the same period in 2023.
Demand has continued to show some strength on the Trans-Pacific eastbound (TPEB) lane, therefore the number of planned blank sailings continues to be relatively low. However, port congestion in Asia and at some U.S. East Coast (USEC) ports is causing schedule unreliability, which can lead to blank sailings.
Congestion at transshipment ports in Asia remains an important and growing issue. Shipments can be delayed as much as three weeks at many major transshipment ports, such as Busan, Shanghai, and Singapore. This is mainly due to the increase in transshipment services caused by carriers that choose to omit port calls to re-establish schedule integrity and catch Panama Canal transit appointments.
There have also been severe weather events in the past few weeks, specifically at China ports, which has added to the port congestion. Carriers are reporting it is taking as much as one week to have their vessels worked at some large Asia ports like Singapore and Shanghai.
Based on water levels in Gatun Lake, the Panama Canal draft and reservation slots timeline has evolved as per the below:
Reservation slots per day |
Usual scenario |
Jul 30 | Nov 3 | Dec 1 | Jan 1 | Jan 16 | Feb 1 | Mar 18 | Mar 25 | May 7* | May 16 | May 30 | Jun 1 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Panamax Locks | 26 | 22 | 17 | 16 |
|
17 |
|
19 | 20 | 17 | 24 | – | 24 |
Neopanamax Locks | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 |
|
7 |
|
7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | ** | 8 |
TOTAL | 36 | 32 | 25 | 22 |
|
24 |
|
26 | 27 | 24 | 31 | – | 32 |
* Temporary slot reduction due to scheduled dry chamber maintenance on the West Lane of Gatun Locks
** Maximum authorized draft allowed: 13.71 meters (45.0 feet) tropical fresh water
On the Trans-Pacific eastbound (TPEB) lane and Asia to Latin America and Mexico, the sudden demand surge in May has not slowed down. Rate increases have been steady on a weekly (to LATAM/Mexico) or biweekly (to EU and North America) cadence.
More increases have been announced for June 15 and July 1 on both spot market and long-term agreements. Steamship lines (SSLs) are bringing in extra-loader vessels (additional vessel for a given week, not initially planned in the rotation) to alleviate the freight backlog. However, cargo rollover for one or two weeks has been reported. As SSLs are sharing very strong June loadings, the challenge is likely to continue. Equipment shortages out of Asia is also an increasing concern.
On the Trans-Atlantic westbound (TAWB) lane, there is a slight uptick in demand. Some equipment shortage in the hinterland, as well as port congestion in the Mediterranean put pressure on lanes that were previously balanced. Steamship lines announced rate increases for July 1. As this date gets closer, the increases may be canceled based on demand.
This is another lane directly impacted by the Suez Canal disruptions. While it seems fairly balanced, equipment and vessel space issues from Asia are spreading. Steamship lines are shifting some capacity and equipment away from lower-paying India to North America shipments, to accommodate the very strong Asia exports demand, yielding higher rates.
The effect is mostly impacting freight from south India, where competing Asia exports can connect and use the space to move to the USEC.
Continuous blank sailings, service reshuffles, and equipment shortages due to the Suez and Panama Canals disruptions will keep estimated time of departures (ETDs) volatile.
On high-demand trades
On low-demand trades
Source: Descartes DatamyneTM
The graph above compares import shipping container volumes from 2019 to 2024. Compared to May 2023, today’s 20' equivalent unit (TEU) import volume was up 11.9%. While 2023 Q2 was soft overall, this is still a notably strong increase.
May 2024 U.S. container import volumes increased from April 2024, increasing 6.2% to 2,346,382 TEUs. The April to May growth was in the middle of the range of the previous six years, outside of the 2020 impact of the pandemic.
Market conditions from North America remain stable with space and schedule integrity maintaining availability and regularity. We are also seeing more vessels being allowed to transit through the Panama Canal each day, which will return services to this route.
The Europe to Oceania market is tightened due to the disruption in the Red Sea/Suez Canal. Carriers continue to implement contingency surcharges. This also impacts transit times with the 14-day transit via the Cape of Good Hope.
European arrival schedules on relay services are experiencing disruption due to delays in Asian trans-shipment ports and subsequent routing adjustments. Expect to see schedule disruptions continue throughout Q3. Consider forward planning ahead of the European summer peak season, which has already begun.
Northeast and Southeast Asia capacity continues to tighten following blank sailings and port omissions. Rates remain unstable with the implementation of GRIs and peak season surcharges (PSS) throughout June and continuing into July. The escalation in pricing is reminiscent of 2022 and is expected to continue.
There have been record volumes from China in 2024 with an increase of +17.5% January–April and +23.1% increase for the same period on import volumes from Southeast Asia to Australia based on Ports Australia trade data. There are continuing space issues, so forecasting and early bookings are essential. Schedule reliability is impacted with transshipment delays and subsequent routing adjustments.
The Trans-Tasman market is impacted by ongoing delays along the New Zealand (NZ) coast affecting schedule integrity. Delays at port have reduced and range from 0.5–1 day at DP World, Patricks Terminal, and NZ ports. While schedule reliability is impacted, space remains open with equipment readily available.
Australian coastal shipping is not experiencing delays or issues with schedule integrity from east to west coast. Capacity remains out of key ports, with rates holding firm (e.g., Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne).
Export rates are under pressure with strong load factors creating competition—this is expected to continue into July. Capacity is tightening from Australia and New Zealand. Plan to book 2–3 weeks in advance. New Zealand will be entering peak produce season, space to the United States is tightening.
The transportation sector in Brazil showed significant growth in the first five months of 2024, driven by various factors, including the post-pandemic economic recovery, infrastructure investments, and the digitalization of logistics processes.
Digitalization continues to transform the surface transportation sector in Brazil:
Sustainability has also become a priority in the transportation sector, with initiatives involving alternative fuels, electric and hybrid vehicles, logistics carbon footprint reduction programs, and recycling and reusing materials.
Recently, the state of Rio Grande do Sul has faced a series of catastrophic events including floods, landslides, and severe storms. These natural disasters have caused significant damage to infrastructure, directly affecting the region's economy and logistics. Operations have also been interrupted or reduced at the Port of Rio Grande, one of the state's main ports.
Because this state’s economy is based on agricultural producers, the reduction in agricultural production has directly impacted the local and national economy—increasing food prices and reducing supply.
The floods and landslides damaged highways, railways, and bridges, interrupting the flow of goods. The interruption of transportation routes makes it difficult to distribute goods, resulting in delays and increased logistics costs. The recovery of this infrastructure is essential to restore logistics in the region.
Transportation and logistics companies face challenges in maintaining efficiency and meeting demands. These difficulties impact the supply of essential products, such as food, medicine, and fuel, worsening the situation for the affected population.
The Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has recently issued a final rule on detention and demurrage billing practices. Since the regulation clarifies these invoices can now only be issued to the contractual parties, drayage operators will no longer receive, pay, or invoice for these charges on behalf of customers.
Additionally, backup invoices from steamship lines will not be provided as most have transitioned to statements and public tariffs. This is part of a series of rulemakings by the Commission, as directed in the Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 2022 (OSRA 2022). These new regulations underscore the heightened regulatory environment and continued scrutiny of ocean shipping activities in the U.S. foreign commerce.
C.H. Robinson has implemented an FMC public detention tariff with competitive rates and terms, which is proactively billed to most shippers. Please connect with your C.H. Robinson team for additional details.
June 1 marked the beginning of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. This forecast looks active, so chances are higher than usual of being affected by a tropical cyclone at some point during the season. Keep in mind that even the threat of a tropical storm in the low country can cause potential disruption, and high winds and rains can cause delays at the ports and hinder transportation.
Charleston
Port issues have affected its ability to work vessels efficiently, causing delays. This will affect schedules in the upcoming weeks.
Because of these recent issues, several vessel ETAs have shifted and/or omitted from their Charleston stop.
Norfolk
Expect significant congestion and re-routing delays to increase. This is caused by diversions from the Baltimore bridge collapse in March 2024. Federal data shows traffic crashes rose 29% on alternative routes in the weeks following the Key Bridge collapse. The same data shows it now takes between two and four times longer for drivers to travel via alternative routes.
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Louisville
Memphis/Nashville
SEA/TAC
Houston
National empty parks have given notice of pricing increases through June. Review the latest Wharf Ancillary Charges Client Advisory for more information.
Visit our Trade & Tariff Insights page for the latest news, insights, perspectives, and resources from our customs and trade policy experts.
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